Best Case Analysis - Beach Gold - a guessing game

Since I spent my career buying and subcontracting, I spent endless hours doing worst case analysis on deals. Silly me, before you enter into any arrangement - do a best case analysis - if everything goes pretty much to plan - what is your gain - is it worth the cost/risk.

So let’s pretend I just had a chance to get the world’s best beach detector for gold jewelry ( if such a thing existed) and let’s pretend that I had 200 hours a year to detect at a suitable beach. How much gold should I expect to find?

Let me know your thoughts - and remember, that this imaginary detector will be approximately twice as effective as any detector you have used previously at finding gold jewelry (kindly spare the lectures on whether such a thing is possible - let’s just assume - for the purposes of the game - that it exists)

What would I expect to earn in 200 hours - let’s try and normalize - say 12 karat gold (an average). How many rings at what average weight equals how many grams of 12K - feel free to go ahead and use one of those on line calculators to turn it into $, but remember, grams of 12K.

Post your guesses.

Rick Kempf
Gold Canyon AZ- where there is no gold



Edited 4 time(s). Last edit at 06/15/2018 10:41AM by lytle78.

At $20 an hour you would need 3 Troy ounces of fine gold, so call it 6 ounces of 10-14K.
6 ounces would be 192 grams I believe. That's a whole lot of the usual 1-2 gram gold
jewelry bits (rings, charms) that seem to be the more common finds.

I've never thought to quantify it like that. Guess that's why I prefer old site historic hunting.
The research is its own adventure, and the wages of a pricy relic or coin are merely a bonus!

Rick, your posts are always good for a goad in the side of discussion, haha.

The million dollar question/word in your post is "suitable". As in "suitable beach". Well gee, that's kind of subjective. There are beaches that have higher ratios of gold to begin with, since they are warm water swimming beaches. That perhaps serve an upper crust clientele. Or are in countries where the cultures wear a lot of gold. And perhaps cultures that simply haven't taken to the hobby yet, so the beaches are riddled with targets (for those willing to deal with local laws and travel and being an odd-ball there, etc....).

And then even if we define a "suitable beach", ... are we talking plodding the dry sand for random drops ? Or are you talking about if a person theoretically landed there on a day he sleuthed out that tides/winds/swells coincided to erode ?

And consider for a moment the definition of "best detector for gold". Well gee, we all know that's a pulse machine of one sort or another. Right ? But the devil is in the details, as we all know : They can't knock out iron worth a durn. So in some cases, the "best detector for gold" at "some suitable beaches", will be a machine that can knock out iron.

Me thinks your question is impossible to answer, with too many subjective variables. But then again, they don't call me kill-joy for nuthin ! haha

Sounds like you are talking random hunting. The odds shift greatly when you know how to read a beach.
Randomly, I'm gonna guess 1 14k wedding band.

Rick...…….. fair question.
If I hunt the beach...….. the nominal hunt time is 4-hours. Your given 200-hours would equate to 50 beach hunts.
I find a piece of gold (on average) on every OTHER hunt. Soooooooo……… 25 pieces of gold would be found.
12Kt is a perfect number. This equates to 12/24 or 50% gold. Most of the gold found …. is 10K or 14K. Yes...… some 9Kt or 18Kt …….. and a piece of Platinum sometimes surfaces.
Most 'found' gold …. has very little 'dollar' value. But...… it is the stones that can make a formidable jump in real value.
Sooooooo…………….. looking at my track-record...….. my last 25 pieces equates to a total (nominal median average) value of approx. $11,000 hock value.

From Tom's numbers I'd say I should have stayed living in FL. I hit the So CAL beaches just a few times a year. Like Tom, My usual hunt is about four hours. I strike gold about every forth time or so and I'd guess that melt value probably would average $125.00 each. 200 hours = about 12 -20 items because sometimes you have a good day with more than one item. My guesstimate would be about $2000. Not counting the coins and silver I get. And no, I'm not willing to pay $2000 for Fisher's new Manta. $750 - $1000 probably my limit on a beach PI. I have to see how my Equinox 800 performs on the beach. If it finds targets at my depth limit then it may do fine. When I was 30 I could dig a lot more than I do today. My Sovereign GT will find a 12" target and that's as deep as I want to dig nowadays.

Id put Tom in the statement of ....... 10% of the people find 90% of the gold. He finds way more than i do and i put in more hours of hunting. So obviously....... he has a more efficient style of hunting, better machine, or is hunting in all the right places at the right time. Im not sure Tom even gets in the water......so how much is he leaving behind? If the machine is twice as efficient..... does that mean i will be as well?

Tom S. ..... why would you not pay $2000 for a manta? Ive paid $1300 for Xcals (several).... then modified them bringing the cost over $2000 (lets not even talk about repair cost)........ and i have a CTX. Ive used MOST of the water machines ..... including the Nox, which yes will find the same as the Xcals and CTX at a much lower price........ but hasnt blown them away. Now i can see you waiting until you see some results. That ive done. But as a water hunter .... its fairly easy to make up $2000 in finds..... free money by the way. What made you buy the Manta?

My gold ratio to hours hunted sucks. I've not found any gold at the beach. All I seem to find is junk bling. I've found 3 gold rings in one little park near my home though and don't go there but about twice a year. At the saltwater beaches, all I can find are tungsten and stainless rings if I find any at all, but it may be because I don't really go to tourist hotspots when I go on vacation.

Hmmm, interesting question with a lot of possible variables as to location and finds profile.

Here's my take on this as seen from finds in the Mediterranean Sea.

I will use Tom's per annum finds number and hours as they make sense to me.

The rings I find are in the weight range 2g to 4.5g. The great majority is 18 carat.
Average weight 3.25g x 25 x0.75 = 61g fine, roughly two tr. Ounces.
Around half of these have stones. Some are worth zilch, some are worth more than the Au content.

I wonder about the $11k you have mentioned Tom. Did you have some big, high quality stones in that equation?

Or may it be that many of the Au ring finds in the US are much heavier on average than in Europe?
I think you call them class rings or so? They appear to be really heavy honkers when seeing them on the internet.

Haven't found any rings as big as that yet, at least here.

Have a nice weekend!

Tom Slick Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> From Tom's numbers I'd say I should have stayed li
> ving in FL. I hit the So CAL beaches just a few ti
> mes a year. Like Tom, My usual hunt is about four
> hours. I strike gold about every forth time or so
> and I'd guess that melt value probably would avera
> ge $125.00 each. 200 hours = about 12 -20 items be
> cause sometimes you have a good day with more than
> one item. My guesstimate would be about $2000. Not
> counting the coins and silver I get. And no, I'm
> not willing to pay $2000 for Fisher's new Manta. $
> 750 - $1000 probably my limit on a beach PI. I hav
> e to see how my Equinox 800 performs on the beach.
> If it finds targets at my depth limit then it may
> do fine. When I was 30 I could dig a lot more than
> I do today. My Sovereign GT will find a 12" target
> and that's as deep as I want to dig nowadays.


Tom, you made mistake and many prospector
we have the same '' bad '' idea in mind

it's not just a matter of depth
but of target size

tell you about your maximum depth
it is obligatorily on a big ring / correct

at this same depth the manta will fetch
rings lighter / than your detector nox, GT / do not see == not big enough for them

so you do not dig deeper == but you pick up more gold ......

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Detector used : Fisher Aquamanta /

Pulsepower Goldscan 5c / Aquastar / Goldquest SSV3 / Nexus Coronado / Vista Gold

LE.JAG You make a good point about possibly seeing a smaller ring at greater depth. I'd be very happy to dig small gold rings at 12". In my case, most of the time the surf is too rough to actually hunt in the water any deeper than about 12". This limits my hunting to the wet sloping sand. As you approach the water it becomes very difficult to dig much more than 12" as the hole fills itself in once you get about 4-6" deep. You can get about two maybe three scoops before the hole just fills with sand before you can dig it out. Further up the slope you can dig deeper but the first time I dig 18" and it ends up being a pull tab or a bobby pin, I'm going to be a little disappointed with my $2,000.00 detector. But that's just me.

Tom, when I get home in the end of the summer, maybe there will be more info and perhaps even some hardware for us to play with - need to find cheap accommodation in SD!

Rick Kempf
Gold Canyon AZ- where there is no gold

Sounds good Rick. I have Family in In Encinitas just north of SD less than a mile from the beach. We can meet up and do some hunting together.