Stay Safe

Tnss stated- Average distance to sun from earth is 499 light second. So include a return trip 998 light second approximately.


I was close at 1020 light seconds.

Mike Hillis Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Albuquerque population is around 900,000 people.
> COVID-19 is highly communicable with about a 1% mo
> rtality rate = 9,000. Ok...not that big of a
> number as compared to some "yearly and seasonal" n
> umbers being passed around....only this isn't a ye
> arly number......this is about how many people wou
> ld die in about a 90 day period if the viru
> s swept unchecked through the community. This is
> how many people would be flooding the ICU's of the
> area hospitals and I know for a fact Albuquerque a
> rea hospitals couldn't treat/care for anywhere nea
> r that number of the seriously ill. And this is
> just the statistical mortality number. Lets be ve
> ry conservative and add another 1% of the populati
> on that would be seriously ill from it but would r
> ecover if they got proper treatment/care. That i
> s another 9,000 people needing the same care that
> the statistical mortality group needs. Now I have
> 18,000 people needing ICU type of care, all inside
> a 90 day window.
>
> In my opinion this is deadly serious. I fully expe
> ct to see enforced compliance at some point until
> we get a handle on it just because so many people
> cannot grasp the seriousness of the situation.
>
> HH
> Mike

I'm a network engineer and not a math major, but that math is flawed.

Currently there are 466,995 confirmed cases, and 21,162 deaths. That comes out to a 4.53% fatality rate. Given our country basically did almost nothing for the first two plus months the outbreak was here, that number will climb substantially.


BTW, I predict that as we surpass Italy (tonight) in the Coronavirus pandemic, Wall Street will come down from their sugar high.

Surpassing Italy will be a milestone regarding the gravity of this grave situation, and perhaps the seriousness of this situation will finally start to sink in with the naysayers.

Make no mistake about it, it will not be business as usual by Easter, the Peoples Republic of China and our government have robbed you of that luxury. The data was there the entire time, but this has been a failure of epic proportions. Stay safe, and be smart.

[www.theatlantic.com]

The fatality rate based on “confirmed cases” will always be high since we only test symptomatic folks. All the non-symptomatic ones aren’t included in the infected total, skewing the rate. One of the many problems of our totally screwing up our testing plans.

Rick Kempf
Gold Canyon AZ- where there is no gold

Some day there will be good news. How about our healthcare professionals. Those people are amazing. And so are those people working at the local grocery. I swear i will have respect for them for many years to come. A shout out by the President would be nice. But alas he seems intent on busting the balls of reporters instead, and trolling Mitt Romney. Oh well.There are truely some amazing people out there. Bright spots in a dark world right now.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/26/2020 01:11AM by goodmore.

He did give them a shout on numerous days. I heard it.

Brian,
I was/am a math major, and your logic is slightly off....but it's off in your favor.

You can only determine the death rate of total CLOSED cases that have concluded outcomes....the patient either recovered or died.
IOW you can't count the active cases....sick ones, since they can still go either way.

That 'closed cases' number is extremely high. It's roughly up to a 16% death rate tonight, and that assumes the Chinese numbers are accurate.
If you don't count the Chinese statistics, the death rate of completed cases (with outcomes) in the rest of the world is over 30%!
(Link to current case numbers: [www.worldometers.info] )

But, (very, very importantly), and as Rick pointed out, that's only the cases that were bad/serious enough to be tested and confirmed. KNOWN cases.
The unknown in the equation is the total number of cases that completed with mild, or no symptoms....and we simply can't know (or accurately guess) that number.

Listen carefully for the phrase "our best estimates" or '"we currently estimate" the next time the WHO or CDC projects case numbers.
That's apparently the medical equivalent to the engineer's WAG, or 'wild ass guess'.
In other words, they simply don't know, but they're trying to make as good of a guess as they can. (That's why it's usually a 'range' of numbers between x and y.)

The only take-away I can see from this, is that you might get it, and never know.
BUT, if you get it bad enough to be tested/confirmed, it's going to be a lot more serious for you than people are assuming.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 03/26/2020 07:28AM by Mike in CO.

Mike in CO Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Brian,
> I was/am a math major, and your logic is slightly
> off....but it's off in your favor.
>
> You can only determine the death rate of total CLO
> SED cases that have concluded outcomes....the pati
> ent either recovered or died.
> IOW you can't count the active cases....sick ones,
> since they can still go either way.
>
> That 'closed cases' number is extremely high. It's
> roughly up to a 16% death rate tonight, and that a
> ssumes the Chinese numbers are accurate.
> If you don't count the Chinese statistics, the dea
> th rate of completed cases (with outcomes) in the
> rest of the world is over 30%!
> (Link to current case numbers: [www.worldom]
> eters.info/coronavirus/ )
>
> But, (very, very importantly), and as Rick pointed
> out, that's only the cases that were bad/serious e
> nough to be tested and confirmed. KNOWN cases.
> The unknown in the equation is the total number of
> cases that completed with mild, or no symptoms....
> and we simply can't know (or accurately guess) tha
> t number.
>
> Listen carefully for the phrase "our best estimate
> s" or '"we currently estimate" the next time the W
> HO or CDC projects case numbers.
> That's apparently the medical equivalent to the en
> gineer's WAG, or 'wild ass guess'.
> In other words, they simply don't know, but they'r
> e trying to make as good of a guess as they can.
> (That's why it's usually a 'range' of numbers betw
> een x and y.)
>
> The only take-away I can see from this, is that yo
> u might get it, and never know.
> BUT, if you get it bad enough to be tested/confirm
> ed, it's going to be a lot more serious for you th
> an people are assuming.

Great post Mike!

I really think we need and maybe will see tests for the COVID-19 antibodies. The date can be accumulated as to who had it and didn't know it or maybe you felt a little crumby and then it past. Allot of useful information could be gleaned from antibody testing.