When data gets in the way of msm's hysteria

[medicalxpress.com]

I have been reading a lot about it and that article seems to paint the picture of what I'm gathering as well.

The numbers for China to date are around 80,000 cases total, and out of that, 70,420 are fully recovered with 7,200 active.

As the article you linked to also points out, the age thing is going to be big in determining how hard or mild it is if you contract it. The majority of people that tested positive didn't require any hospitalization at all, and simple "got over it" at home like you would a normal cold. In fact, that seems to be where the biggest concern is in spreading it. People can have it, and not be experiencing severe symptoms, but with it being so easy to spread, they can spread it to those that WILL experience severe problems. The elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions are the ones it is taking the hardest tolls on.

NY TImes reported this morning:

The virus has now infected and killed more people in Europe — over 82,000 cases and more than 3,400 dead — than it has in China. “This is serious,” Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany said in a televised address on Wednesday. “Take it seriously.”

The largest issue at hand is that if this thing isn't contained, it will continue to spread and inundate our medical system. Once it's overcapacited, those that cannot "get over it" at home, will be unable to get the get needed medical attention and needlessly parish.

The mass hysteria wasn't needed, but had this been taken seriously by our government a couple of months ago, we'd be in a completely different situation than we currently are. Perhaps that was the plan, no idea, but it's pretty simple really, we just need to be smart about this, stay put, and break the chain.

Cal_cobra Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> NY TImes reported this morning:
>
> The virus has now infected and killed more p
> eople in Europe — over 82,000 cases and more than
> 3,400 dead — than it has in China. “This is seriou
> s,” Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany said in a
> televised address on Wednesday. “Take it seriously
> .”
>

Trump did act on it in January - [www.npr.org]

The Chinese kept it quiet for 20 days in December 2019, despite the warnings from their Doctors/Scientists.

Cal_cobra Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------


> The mass hysteria wasn't needed, but had this been
> taken seriously by our government a couple of mont
> hs ago, we'd be in a completely different situatio
> n than we currently are.

Brian, had China been more honest in the begging we may not of had all the shortages we have now. We would of had 3 months to prepare. Also reported yesterday or today is that China has no new cases( non immigrant) , do you really believe that?

El

Elbert Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Cal_cobra Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
>
> > The mass hysteria wasn't needed, but had this been taken seriously by our government a couple of months ago, we'd be in a completely different situation than we currently are.
>
> Brian, had China been more honest in the begging we may not of had all the shortages we have now. We would of had 3 months to prepare. Also reported yesterday or today is that China has no new cases( non immigrant) , do you really believe that?
>
> El


I totally agree that the mass hysteria wasn't needed, and I completely put the lions share of this issue on China for trying to cover it up causing the rest of the world to loose valuable time to wrap their head around this and try to get ahead of it. China's whistle-blower was reprimanded, and died of COVID-19 due to his efforts.

That's why their, and our government, should've taken this seriously months ago. Simply restricting travel to/from China is like putting a band-aid on the Titanic. It's a start, but it's step one on a long list of action items that need to be implemented to head this off in an attempt to minimize it.

Unfortunately it appears that until people "see it for themselves" they don't get it, they think the mass hysteria is nonsense, some political stunt, conspiracy, or who knows what they think, but they certainly are not comprehending the gravity of the potential situation. People are still comparing it to the flu

This is why they shouldn't have cut funding to the CDC. This is why science is important. This is where leadership is critical, the longer you do nothing or do the bare minimum, the larger the problem to solve gets, the more hysteria is created, the more people loose their jobs, the more people die.

Now that the gravity of this is setting in, it's interesting how many of the naysayers are starting to change their tunes.

Not that most governments are exactly forthcoming and truthful when disseminating information, but I believe almost nothing the Chinese govt. says. The fact that China has been stuck at eighty thousand and change for the past ten days is simply not believable. I saw a new reporter in Beijing yesterday, showing that people are out and about like the problem is solved.

Of course it was TRUMP that caused the Communist Chinese to suppress the news!!!

Ok Brian, now that we got that off our chest, you and Tom doing any research for any up and coming hunts? Wonder if I have time to bug your vehicles

If the U.S. had taken steps months earlier, all that would be different is the hysteria would have taken place months earlier. Take precautions and make healthy choices.....should be heeded every germ (flu) season. Yes, I know it's not the flu. Thanks



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/21/2020 09:32PM by Arkansas.

doc holiday Wrote:
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> Of course it was TRUMP that caused the Communist Chinese to suppress the news!!!

No idea where that came from? Wasn't even insinuated in anything I wrote

Not directed to you---just to the theme of the msm.

Elbert Wrote:
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> Ok Brian, now that we got that off our chest, you and Tom doing any research for any up and coming hunts? Wonder if I have time to bug your vehicles :> )

As a matter of fact we were planning an epic trip in May, some newly researched sites, some old haunts, and good times with old and new friends.

Unfortunately given how this is unfolding, I suspect that will not occur, although truth be told, I'd much rather be in the middle of the desert than at ground zero in California

doc holiday Wrote:
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> Not directed to you---just to the theme of the msm

Gotchya, thanks for the clarification
> .

Over reaction is what should happen. It needs to happen. Getting ahead of the spread is the only way to ensure that things won't get out of hand.

Imagine what will happen if the food supply stops. Farmers get sick. Cattle ranchers get sick.

Imagine what will happen if people at electric power plants get sick. If the electric stops. If the sewer plants fail. Uneducated people are already flushing wipes not knowing the disastrous effect on the system.

Two things truely amaze me. That people can't stay home for a month. What's the quote? Your ancestors were called to war...you are called to sit on your couch.

And that business owners out there have little regard for their employees and communities. Sure i get certain things need to be made and the supply chains need to flow. But we have businesses here in PA suing the government to stay open against the governors orders. It seems that everyone that owns a business wants to consider themselves vital and essential.

Oh when this is over the evaluations on what went wrong will go on for years. Will we learn and apply anything?
.

I still am of the opinion that it has already been here longer than the discovery of "patient zero", and that many have already had it, have it, and are going to get it. Like TnSharpshooter said in another thread, there was a virus going around months ago that exhibited the same symptoms as what is now called COVID-19 that took people weeks to get over. It always came back negative to flu tests. Most of us here, simply referred to it as "the crud". There was one point where 3/4 of our church members were sick with "whatever it is that's going around". Antibiotics didn't help, Tamiflu didn't do anything for it, steroid shots didn't help. In fact, sometime around the holidays, my 1st cousins child spent almost 3 weeks at children's hospital and was on death's door at one point with what they could only describe as a severe respiratory virus. I don't think "the spike" in new confirmed cases is as much from rapid transmission but more so from that it has already been here longer than when the first "patient zero" appeared in the US. They've only just begun testing for this specific virus, thus more cases will start to appear rapidly because they are testing for it now instead of just testing for the flu or pneumonia. I.e. "we're finding more of it because now we're looking for it".

Looking back, my wife and I had this cold in and around the 14th of February. My lungs felt like raw hamburger mixed with fire blasted steel wool. My sinuses were runny and stuffed, runny then stuffed. I started taking Mucinex and I was able to cough up plugs of mucus and get rid of that crap. No fever though, laziness yes.

Lasted for about 8-10 days. Probably the worst cold I can remember. We didn't go to the doctors....we try to let our bods go a round or three before we go...if that's going nowhere then we go. Wife says no way was that the Chinese Virus....how does she know.... oh that's right, she knows everything,.. I forgot.

Daniel shared his experience of illness in his church had “months ago” and speculated that it could have been in fact Covid 19. I strongly suspect that it was not likely Covid-19. There are lots of viruses which are poorly understood and identified.

Coved-19 however - is showing an infection rate of doubling of documented cases is on the order of 3 to 10 days in the absence of effective intervention like has been done in South Korea.

If what I have to assume were dozens of folks in your church “months ago” had was Covid-19, then the math would likely be something like this. Assuming 18 sick at the same time and assuming that “months ago” can be represented by 10 weeks then even if we allow doubling only once per week, then below is the result. There should now be 18432 cases “seeded“ from that group of worshipers. This is, of course unlikely.

Covid 19 is extremely contagious - here is a clip from Forbes Magazine explaining the concept of exponential growth as applied to Covid -19.

[www.forbes.com]

Here’s my math showing 18 to start and the effect after doubling every 7 days for 10 weeks.

18
36
72
144
288
576
1152
2304
4608
9216
18432

Rick Kempf
Gold Canyon AZ- where there is no gold



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/22/2020 06:35PM by lytle78.

I come back to the point of, they have just begun testing for it. Actually, your numbers on spread rate may be correct and I may be correct as well. The sickness wasn't just the church I go to. It was bad enough and spreading enough that schools in the county and counties surrounding us were closing for a few days at a time to slow the spread rate down. My sister inlaw is secretary at one of our local elementary schools and she said there were some WEEKS of 60+% absenteeism due to sickness. This wasn't just limited to schools but factories and other work places as well, and all across the state. My wife's grandmother came down with "something" in December just before Christmas and died shortly after in early January by basically drowning with fluid in her lungs. She didn't have pre existing health conditions either. We're saying the same thing...just not agreeing on the starting date.

Good points. The combination of being highly contagious and slow recovery time is very bad. I wonder how long a person can spread the germ. Someone mentioned that the virus could be spread by one having the virus and the carrier not even know it (not yet showing symptoms). I rarely get sick, but when I do it goes immediately to my lungs...no sneezing, runny nose, fever, ect,,,,Lots of coughing and congestion issues. I have to stop eating any sugar or dairy products to quicken recovery. Lots of sleep, water, breathing exercises, taking Zinc capsules and vit C also help. The key for me is to catch the sickness way ahead of time. Everyone is different....listen to your bodies system. Take care. Thanks



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 03/22/2020 08:10PM by Arkansas.

I don’t mean to discourage sharing information, but the point of my post was that the doubling rate of Covid 19 is pretty well established. I was feeling pretty smug about my calculations but then had to do some more checking after TN’s reply.

Sure enough, influenza has about the same doubling rate, so there goes my argument......but.

Two things. The death rate from the flu is pretty well established at 0.1% of those infected - that’s 1 in a thousand. The Covid 19 death rate looks as if it is 10 to 20 times higher - 10 to 20 per thousand infected.

If the groups you are telling us about had the Covid 19 - and the exponential rate were doubling every 7 days (which flu AND Covid 19 can do) then at the end of 10 weeks, your community would have had 18 to 36 deaths (based on the calculations I put up.

Here’s a bit from a noted virologist on ILI (illnesses like influenza.

“At least seven to eight viruses are known to cause ILI, and you could be infected with all of them in a single year if you are really unlucky. People who have a lot of exposure to young children—for example, a kindergarten teacher—can be sick all winter!”

I vote for ILI as the source of the illnesses you describe when the patients did not test positive for influenza.

In any case, we all need to do what we can to protect our families and communities.

Rick Kempf
Gold Canyon AZ- where there is no gold

Worth looking at what happened in the 20th century when the "Spanish" Flu of 1918 took the world by storm. The H1N1 virus had genes of avian origin, and it lasted from January of 1918 - December 1920, basically two years.

It infected 500 million people—about a quarter of the world's population at the time.

50,000,000 - 100,000,000 people died. Imagine that in a world that's entire population hadn't even hit 1 billion yet.

We'll see how much impact modern science might have on what could be a similar event of the 21st century.

The modern science right now is knowledge and communication. Stay away from other people.

Not to make light of the situation but I've been practicing "social distancing" my whole life. I'm not a people person and have never been comfortable in crowds. I almost have an anxiety in crowds or when individual people get too close. That's why I have stayed on 3rd shift at work for 20 years...I can't handle crowds of people being everywhere I go, so on 3rd shift if I have to go to town for anything it is super early in the morning before the crowd awakes. I usually go places to get away from people. Everybody else is freaking out and bored out of their mind from staying home right now, not visiting people, etc. To me, it's just a typical day. Some people like friendly and chatty neighbors. My motto is derived from the old State Farm insurance motto "Like a good neighbor, stay over there". It feels weird with everyone else doing it now.

Its important that we take the situation seriously, but don't let the numbers bring you down. Stay positive. To win a battle you must be positive. It is as much mental as physical. Focus, be strong.

Daniel - may you continue to b one of those folks who mostly mind their own business while keeping an eye on what’s going on.

When I retired my wife threatened to buy a tee shirt she saw in a nearby flea market - “Retirement - Half as much money - Twice as much husband.

I’m trying to sit out with the cat in the back yard more to lower the social pressure.

Rick Kempf
Gold Canyon AZ- where there is no gold

They claim that people that have severe symptoms and do recover will have lung issues for years. Scaring of the lungs will take its toll. The next time some of these people get sick from a severe cold or normal flu they could be in real trouble. Scary stuff. Stay safe.

lytle78 --

In my opinion, one of the big problems here is, we don't KNOW the death rate, because we don't know the number infected. You implied 1 to 2 percent, and that's been generally accepted as being correct. But, until and unless we start doing "antibody" testing (to see who all has had the disease, unknowingly, and recovered), along with massively expanded testing on both people WITH symptoms, and WITHOUT, (to see who currently has an ongoing infection), then we have no way of knowing how many people have, or have had, the disease. And so any calculation of "rates" -- where "number of deaths" is the numerator and "number of cases" is the denominator, is a useless calculation. We HAVE to have an accurate measure of the DENOMINATOR, to have any clue whether our calculation has any value whatsoever. And our knowledge of the denominator is woefully lacking. How can any decisions be made as to how to approach this situation, when you don't have this most basic of data?

Invariably, in places where far more extensive testing has occurred, the death rate has been calculated lower (South Korea, the cruise ship, etc.) than the normally accepted "around 2% rate." In my opinion, TESTING needs to be a huge focus -- both tests to determine who has an active infection, AND antibody testing, to see who has already had the disease. Making policy decisions and coming up with a plan of attack based on severely flawed data, and making no effort to gather appropriate data, is insanity, in my opinion.

Steve



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/23/2020 03:23PM by steveg.

Steve - couldn’t agree more. My calculation’s only purpose was to put a bit of perspective around claims that lots of folks had CV19 “months” ago and nobody knew it. They were ill, it was not (supposedly) influenza, but that is no reason to suppose it was CV19. If it had been, given the infection rate and even a conservative estimate of the death rate - communities would have noticed.

Sadly, we will soon enough know the death rate among those hospitalized with confirmed CV. The death rate among all those infected won’t be know until much later when a reasonable measure of the total infections is revealed via the kind of testing you described.

Rick Kempf
Gold Canyon AZ- where there is no gold

One thing that bothers me is I keep hearing people say that Trump cut funding to the CDC. Well, here is the truth:

What's True

The Trump administration's proposed 2021 budget includes cuts to the CDC's activities related to chronic disease.
What's False

Congress hasn't approved the budget, so CDC funding in 2021 remains unclear.

If you only listen to or believe one person in the White House, it should be this guy:

[www.sciencemag.org]