$$$$Any Speculation Why Gold & Silver Is Dropping?$$$$

Hi, does anyone have any idea why gold & silver is dropping in price so much?.....I kinda thought it would be going up in price not down....Maybe it's an omen? I might not be considered so stupid now, since I also took the time to invest in precious metals like lead & brass....LoL....JJ

Theory is, they (Central banks of the US and Eurpoe) want to supress the precious metals paper market to make it look like things are good with the economy and the stock market. Also, apparently JP Morgan, who has a huge short position in the sivler market, is selling silver. Some people out there are looking at these prices as a nice buying opportunity. I am.

On the opposite side of the coin, it appears Russia and China scoop up the metals when their markets open. Check out when the prices drop drastically...when the London and US markets open up as the price continues to drop during the day. After hours, when the other markets open, the price slowly stablizes and may rise a bit. There is slow buying there. They don't want to buy too much because the price would ramp up. Russia and China do not want that.....and the Fed and ECB don't want that either. If gold and silver start to spike up and go much higher, fast, then confidence in the dollar and the economy begins to falter. The Fed wants to keep injecting 85 billion a month into the stock market, hold down interest rates, and suppress the precious metals to give the sense that everything is fine. At least that is how I look at things based on what is happening throughout the world. Things don't make sense to me. I see the garbage happening in Cyprus and other European countries and I wonder why more people are not buying up some gold and silver.

I am buying at this level. The physical gold/silver market is different than the paper market. The only thing that keeps them in tandem is the price, since the price is determined in the paper futures market.

With the events in Cyrpus, now Russia (check out what Putin just passed as law...people have 3 months to get their money out of foreign banks and back to Russia) ,and soon to be Italy, Spain and other European countries, where it comes to confiscation of assets in the bank, I am taking more cash out of the electronic bits n bytes of the banks and putting it into my gun safe, as well as buying some gold and silver on these drops.

I am in it for the long haul, and to protect my purchasing power. These investments are to RETURN my capital, not to get a return on the capital. I have other money allocated for that.....but remember that can evaporate at any time as now witnessed as to what happened to the innocent people in Cyprus who thought their savings are safe.

May not happen here in the gold ole USA for a while, since we are still the worlds reserve currency and can print money. But it is always good to be safe and have SOME money allocated into physcial ( that is, YOU HAVE IT IN YOUR POSSESSION), gold and silver as well as cash, outside of the banking system.

Never know when they may put on capital controls like Cyprus, where you can't get at your money for a week or so.

Pick up a few silver American Eagles every few weeks and stick them somewhere safe. 3-4 years from now, they will be worth a heck of a lot more than the dollars you bought them with.

Just my opinion

Ammo and reloading supplies are what a person needs to invest in lol. I've seen simple boxes of .22 LR ammo going for $80 a box and selling fast as they come off the trucks. The local stores aren't even putting it on the shelves anymore...because they have lines of people waiting on them to open the boxes so they can put the tax stickers on them to sell. These same boxes of shells just 6 months ago were $10 a box. I saw a box of 333 round .22s going for $100 a box the other day. The cheapest I've seen those lately were $40 a box...still a big jump from $10 a box.

The drops seem sudden as they are largely futures-driven, rather than real supply/demand reasons. And the stockmarkets are making new highs, and people think there's money to be made there (possibly short-term) so other assets are being sold.

Daniel....you are correct and that is a totally different yet sound investment strategy. Diversification huh !! LOL.

"Ammo and reloading supplies are what a person needs to invest in"
What would you recommend those in the United Kingdom do? Just stock up on food and bottled water?

the value of the dollar seems to be getting higher...........

tmanly,

You are correct. One of the theories on what will happen when things start to unravel in the financial system, is the dollar will continue to get stronger as it is perceived as a safe haven. When the dollar starts to collapse, all hell will then break loose and the money will then flow into precious metals.

Again, that is one of the theories.

What bothers me is, we here in the US get zero percent interest on our savings, and at some point there may be a threat to confiscate accounts over a certain amount ( like Cyprus) and capital controls ( ie, dictating how much money can be taken out to avoid bank runs), so based on that, it may be better to have cash in a safe at home ! Same interest rate with a lot less risk in a lot of peoples mind (including mine).

I don't think things will go haywire here for awhile, but ya never know. When it goes, it will go FAST.

I'm surprised the N Korean tensions haven't pushed prices higher. Most figure this is empty saber rattling. Hope they're correct...

A good read: [economictimes.indiatimes.com]

Therover, I agree 100%.
[kingworldnews.com]
Read the latest article about the Fed Being desperate.
The nightmare will be here soon.

Largest Dutch bank defaults on physical gold deliveries to customers



28 March, 16:04 ABN has no gold left for its clients



So far, the people who believe that there is a big cartel suppressing the price of gold using the “paper gold” market have been widely regarded as conspiracy theorists that shouldn’t be taken seriously. The “paper gold manipulation theory” predicts that the world’s financial institutions lack the physical gold required to keep the price suppressed and sooner or later the powers that be will resort to gold confiscation.


This week, a well-known Dutch bank was the first financial institution to inform its clients that their “gold investments” are no longer physically deliverable, proving that the physical gold and “paper gold” are different commodities with different prices. The world’s financial system is short on gold and no gold bars, except those that are kept by the owners, are safe from confiscation.
ABN AMRO, the biggest Dutch bank, has sent a letter to its clients stating that they will no longer be able to take physical deliveries of the gold they have bought through ABN. Instead they are offered money at the current market rate for gold. Basically, instead of owning a risk free, physical asset (a gold bar or a gold coin), the bank’s clients now own a monetary claim on ABN AMRO, being exposed to the bank's credit risk. Such action is unfair and resembles a disguised default, even if it is supposedly legal. The bank is taking away the clients’ gold, without their consent, and is replacing the gold with a claim on the bank, forcing the bank’s clients to become the bank’s creditors. It is obvious that at least some of the investors who used to invest in precious metals using the Dutch bank services will stop doing business with ABN. The only logical reason for the bank to do something so damaging to its own reputation is to avoid a default on their physical deliveries of gold.
The situation can be explained in simple terms: the gold is gone or there never was any gold. The conclusions are clear to any seasoned investor. Never trust a bank to hold your precious metals. It will only end badly

We've all heard about the demise of our financial system since November 2008 and things look far better now than they did then.  I'd be more worried about interest rates going up, rather than staying at zero, as that would negatively impact Federal interest payments on the debt.  Heck, the Fed keeps printing greenbacks and the prime rate still sits near zero!  The chance of the Feds grabbing your 401K has as much chance of us allowing the big banks to fail.  The wealthy would never stand for it.

Rover, you're right; diversication is the key. I like 50% stocks, 35% PCGS certified rare US coins, 10% cash, 5% silver/gold, 0% lead, I put stockpiling bullets in the same category as storing canned water in your fifty year old bomb shelter.

The screeching coming from CNBS and elsewhere this morning is amusing.

There’s only one chart that matters, and it will, when recognized, blow up the stock market — sending it down 50% or more.

It’s this one:



That’s it. And the ADP report this morning is showing the pathway to recognition, as construction has stalled and the destruction of job creation in small and mid-sized businesses exposed to Obamacare will finish it off.

I continue to maintain that we’re in a time very similar to 2007, when the facts were on the table. Banks paying dividends with money they didn’t have. Hedge funds that blow. Bubbles in crazy places, then housing, this time in subprime car lending, student loans and even Bitcon.

The transports are telling you that all is not well. CAT is confirming it. Copper is warning that we’re in deep trouble internationally, and irrespective of the claim that “America benefits from everyone else’s pain” that’s only partially true – in the end earnings are what drive stock prices, and the red flags are waving at warp speed on earnings.

To go along with this are rail car loadings. The trouble here is that baseline is in a serious downtrend — and after halting its decline from 2008 to 2009 over the last year it has slid severely once more. There will be those who argue that this is “no big deal”; I disagree.

At the end of the day the premise behind the Fed’s intervention in the market is that “cheap money” promotes hiring through an indirect process. But inherent in that process is a belief that the economic model from 1980 to 2007 can be restarted – a model predicated on ever-larger amounts of leverage in the economy. That model had positive feedback that came from the bond market rally from 1980 to 2008 as well with yield compression helping to fuel the fire.

More than five years into this experiment the results are clear: It doesn’t work.

I believe that by the time we get to the end of the year we will be looking back at these signs and asking “what the hell was I thinking?”

Credit expansion is not going to restart because it can’t — we have reached the terminus of that economic model, like it or not.

Reprinted with permission from Karl Denninger of The Market Ticker

Hi, this financial stuff goes way over my head,,I don't understand it at....I know I have some money in the bank that makes me laugh...The banks don't pay hardly any interest at all, maybe 000.1% on it LoL? I have made some observations and noticed that there is hardly any big trucks going by the house now...The grocery stores around here don't have as many people going to them anymore...Plus the grocery stores have smaller shopping carts now to trick you into thinking you have a lot of stuff....More later......JJ

Some consider Karl Denninger the founder of the Tea Party. He rails against nearly all government policies yet complains about the lack of banking and trading regulations. He supports the Occupy movement.

No wonder I can't understand what he writes.

Now back to detecting..

Yes diversity is going to be the ticket in the case of a financial collapse. Having stock and bond investments ain't gonna mount to a hill of beans if everything tanks. It is bound to happen...sooner rather than later. They can't keep on spending money they do not have. It's like a main artery in the body that has been cut...it is gushing blood and if they don't do something about it, it will bleed out. The wealthy can't control a collapse...if that were the case, the US would have never gone through the Great Depression. The stories from that era are what fuels a lot of the dreams of this detecting hobby itself....hoping to find that mason jar full of money that some old timer buried because they didn't have trust in banks. What was it that brought on that distrust in banks? They lost everything they had in the banks! That's why.

The difference between those people back in the 1930s and today....is that back then, they still knew how to work...how to farm, where food came from, etc. They were able to survive because of that. This generation today is just plain helpless and ignorant of any of that knowledge. There's people today that probably don't know any better than to think fruits and vegetables come from the shelves at their local grocery store. They've never had to plant a garden....they wouldn't know how to put up the vegetables via canning, to keep them available to eat during the off seasons. To them...all they've ever known is going to the store and finding it on a shelf. Or driving up to a fast food speaker and telling them what they want to eat. If you take all that away....you are going to have chaos. We've seen it on small scale things just in the last few years. When Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans...those people went crazy. They were looting houses and businesses for anything they could get their hands on, fighting one another, etc....people were dying because they don't know how to survive without the luxuries of living that we have been spoiled by. They were without power for a couple weeks or so....not even long term. More recently, when Super Storm Sandy hit New York and New Jersey...it showed how much worse we have gotten since Katrina. This time the power was off for just a few days and people were looting and rioting in the streets. I recall one story of a electrical lineman that was from out of state that had came up to help restore the power. He had his jaw broken by an angry resident because they weren't working fast enough to his standards to restore his power. How about that cruise ship a month or so ago...the one that lost power and the people were without power for a few days? They were on the brink of going insane. If anything like that happens on a larger and prolonged scale...it will be total chaos.

Your money in the bank will be cut off...worthless to you. The stocks and bonds would be the same way. The only thing that would matter is what other resources you had available to live off of...food, water....and things of value/use to TRADE for food and water. You can't eat a stack of receipts for stocks. And all you might be able to do is burn them for heat. Gold and silver would be nice for looking at I guess...but if it were worthless, it wont do any good. You may laugh at the thought of burning money, but I recall stories from soldiers in the Confederacy during the Civil War that were just burning their Confederate money to start fires with....it wasn't worth the paper it was printed on. A box of bullets may be your life line in a situation like that...use them to hunt with for food on the table...or as a bartering trade for something else of value. I tell ya what...if I only knew back then how things would be today...I would have loaded up on bullets while they were available and cheap to get. And I would be sitting REAL good right now for reselling it at a substantial profit rate. What was selling for $10 a box just a yr ago...is up to $100 today all day long....and people are getting real desperate to get it now because it is so scarce...therefore when it does come available, the prices seem to keep going up and people keep buying it because they are afraid they wont be able to find it anywhere else if they pass it up. I don't have many good things to say about Obama...but I do have to say, he is the best dang gun and ammo salesman that this country has ever seen.

[www.munknee.com] the name Patriot Act a direct slap in the face?

I got a kick out of some stuff that was in the paper a month ago for about two weeks in the financial section.
About all these people getting advice on how to retire, every day a different couple. They needed help, each partner had $120,000.00 ++ jobs for the past 15+ years.
Have $1 million saved up in the bank or more. Have stocks, bonds etc. One or both would be out of work within the next year or two retiring. Problem was they couldn't figure out
how to live spending less than $20-30,000.00 a month to live. It was like the end of the world for them......................crying poverty. GIVE ME A BREAK!!!

DeepTech Vista X with 3 search coils.
Works for me

Hey Sven, all I can say is a country boy can survive!!

deathray Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hey Sven, all I can say is a country boy can
> survive!!

If and when all hell breaks loose, it won't be fun for any of us but I am thankful deathray, "country boy" applies to me.
...away from cities and towns....

I can imagine those in cities...will face mucho difficulties.

They are shorting it to no tomorrow and have been shorting it on and off for over 10 years now. I have to hand it to them, they know how to manipulate the physical price with the digital market. There must be something more to it than that though as I just can't figure how the digital market has such an influence on the physical market. When you look at large orders of silver and gold, they often take months and months to fulfill. In the past, the supply and demand difference was made up by "leasing" the gold at a .5% interest rate. So, the gold is still on the books, but is never coming back (as it was really sold). They still do it to a point, but just don't have the amount of gold in reserves anymore.

Here is the organization that brought the manipulation to the front. But nothing has, or really can, be done... [www.gata.org]

Also, not so much with Gold, but look at Bitcoin. Check out [www.weusecoins.com] to find out more. These viritual currencies like bitcoin, are slowly going to disrupt the centralized banking systems control. Looks like they might be to the monetary system what the internet was to freedom of information. The value we give to anything, gold or silver, is in large part just a faith based agreement (Intrinsic value is subjective. We also need to consider the damage to the earth the mining does). The dollar, Euro, etc. are essentially digital currencies, but can inflate to no end. Bitcoin, and some of the other currencies are not, limited supply but 8 decimal places to allow for limited supply. Bitcoin, to an extent, is reflecting the hyperinflation. [bitcoin.clarkmoody.com] Gold is not. If you think back to when gold was $250 an ounce and the amount of money in circulation then, and compare it to gold right now and the vastly increased money supply. It makes NO sense that gold is this low. It should be in the thousands as the demand is tremendous. It is clear the price is being manipulated, and on so many levels. But the electronic shorting is doing wonders, they need to reform that part, but empires don't give in that easily.

Albert



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/06/2013 09:46AM by earthmansurfer.

Albert,

You are correct, the 'paper' aka electronic market, is suppressing the price. When entities can short using leverage, they can suppress prices very easily( and the opposite is true as well, and longs using leverage can make prices go up). It is going to get interesting when more and more begin to take delivery.

I know when I look at some of the on line PM dealers, and see Out of Stock messages, it makes me wonder if the physical market is beginning to dry up.

Ya never know, but it is a good idea to have some tangible, physical assets in ones portfolio as a hedge. Be that real estate, PM's, collectibles, guns n ammo, food, etc. Something where the powers that be can't just snap it up or devalue it at the flick of a wrist.

I cannot fully grasp Bitcoins at this time. It has that parabolic rise conductive to bubble territory. It's out there in the 'electronic' market, and not very well known yet. Seems like it is an alternative way to trade goods and services and to move 'money' around but I am not convinced yet. Also, not sure if central banks and countries like Russia and China are buying it. I do know they are buying gold ( at least from reports I read...and I guess one has to be skeptical of that too !).

therover61 - If things do get difficult, say more flooding, more crazy weather, it will be nice to have another exchange outside dollars, Euros, etc. - especially if this hyperinflation continues. People need to understand that you can't keep increasing a money supply at the rate it has been, and not expect to see German 1920's type inflation or MUCH worse. I find these coins worth 200 Marks that were next to worthless back then. What happened in Cyprus is an alarm bell. Now there are rumors from other European countries as well.

The suppressing of the gold and silver price is criminal, because it created a false trust (and strength) of the dollar, which was no longer representing true inflationary value (or rather devalue).

Not that I think the end is coming, but it is a good idea to have food and water on hand should commerce be interupted. Dehydrated food can last 25+ years and still be nutritious, so having some on hand, using a bit every few years and then replacing it, would be prudent.

When you think of bitcoin you have to remove some of your "stock knowledge". For example, there are no derivatives, short positions, etc. So, when you see a parabolic rise you can't apply the same mechanics to it. It is supply and demand. If people in EU countries, America, China, etc. see their currencies devaluing, see money being stolen or frozen in their accounts, do you really think technical analysis is going to be worth anything? I'm not saying technical analysis doesn't apply, but considering the circumstance, you have to give more leeway. There have been quite a few top formation with Bitcoins rise, and most every time it just kept going. There is a 10-12 day waiting list to have accounts verified at MTGOX, which does 70%-80% of the trading world wide (that needs to change for obvious reasons.) When those bank accounts are verified, what can those 10's of thousands of people do? They can wait or buy. There is NO SHORT SELLING. The closest thing to that is buying an alternative virtual currency (e.g. litecoin) and moving your money between the two. But the demand is there, just waiting to enter the markets. And mainstream news is covering it like crazy. I am shocked and almost a bit worried why they are talking about bitcoin on CNN, FOX, etc. I never would have guessed it.

The Bitcoin exchanges have been being attacked with MASSIVE DOS attacks (probably for profit making - buy on the dips). They have mostly withstood them. To be honest, the system needs to be tested. The security is top notch (bitcoin network, but exchanges, e-wallets, computers vary). Really, these virtual currencies are needed by people as I get the feeling many of these corrupt governments and banks are going to start to feel the people act out. And acting out can involve just going around the system, not fighting it. The system and corruption will fall when we no longer take part in it.

The bitcoin, or at least virtual currencies, are a Black Swan, just like the internet was.

But, in the end, if things do get difficult, we are going to need to learn to work together, and forget our capitalistic mentality. We are really one bit family.
Something like time based currencies, where you trade your time for anothers time, removes hoarding, power, etc. and I see this, along with bitcoin (or virtual currencies) playing some role as society, adjusts away from a banking system that brought us wars, slavery to money and States, etc.

The future looks bright, but the adjustment might be a bit... rough.

Albert

Also, do not forget about the latest job numbers that they fudged and got caught.

Going Forward.

The powers that be can only suppress the precious metals prices for so long, and then they get overrun by physical demand. They have been unable to hold the gold price below $500, $1,000, etc. When they lose control of the price each time, its like holding a beach ball under water..When people lose faith in the paper money, you will see the value of real money, gold and silver, go up in price like the price of ammunition.

Albert.

You are probably correct about trying to use technical analysis logic on Bitcoin ( then again, the way the Fed is injecting 85B into the market, it's hard to figure via technical or fundamental analysis how things are).

I guess I prefer an asset that can only be created by a supernova explosion and mined by human physical labor and some heavy machinery. But things do change and with this internet world and how the financial system is all interconnected, Bitcoins may end up being a valid, secure and acceptable means of commerce for the majority of people in the future. To me the way it trades and how it moves, it seems more like a commodity than a currency. Defined as a virtual currency or quasi currency, it does seem be getting a foothold so ya never know.

Shoot....I would think if it really is secure and there is only a finite number of them ( similar to a finite amount of gold and silver on the planet) as opposed to fiat currency that can be created out of thin air, I would much rather trust that than the dollar in terms of future purchasing power.

rover - Bitcoin may not be the virtual currency that succeeds, but it has set a HUGE ball in motion. It only takes a small nudge for people to see there are other alternatives to money, other ways to view money, etc. It helps to open other ideas, other ways of looking at "problems" and on and on. It is another "red pill", so to speak.

It took me a while to get over the belief that money needs to be tangible, a belief that money should be backed by gold and on and on (At the least I don't like the idea of mining and ripping up the earth to get gold and silver from her, for it to just be kept in a bank/vault and as a banking to money. I doubt they carry around gold on starship enterprises nor collect gold coins ). Money represents something and behind that representation should be trust, good will and nature, exchange and Not Governments run by corporations, not private Banks, etc. If it is virtual, so be it. If it is just an agreement between two people, or groups of people, etc. so be it. It should not involve power and control over others, power over resources or any other manipulative forces. Money should not be the mark of the beast, as it has been.

So, you can probably surmise, and I said as much, these virtual currencies are just a step in the right direction. There are many steps. Being how you want others to be, how you want governments to be, requires acting from truth.

One of my favorite quotes:

Krishnamurti: “It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society.”

Albert

Here is a good article by Paul Craig Roberts that provides his explantion.


[www.paulcraigroberts.org]

Alan

Albert,

I see your points, and they make very good and valid arguments. Especially the environmental part. At this point I am still in the 'if you don't hold it you don't own it' crowd. Trust and confidence are the main drivers of any monetary system. I can see bartering becoming more popular in the future, which may be a good thing.

Anyway, I am keeping my eye on the Bitcoin deal and reading up.

Take care.

John

When I posted the below Bitcoin was at around 140 USD. It is around 240 USD right now. I am not shocked at all, though I was thinking it would see 200 by the end of this week. The more I research this the better it sounds and the more amazing, regarding the technology and all it can do. Expect super volitility ahead of us, maybe a correction at 300 but I'm not even sure due to the following - As of now the waiting list on the exchange that has 70-80% of the traffic is 10-12 days, that is a lot of buys to be entering the market and that market seems to be the one that establishes the price. Add to that that Venture Capitalists are jumping on. A cheaper alternative right now is litecoin, but that is harder to purchase...

Albert

earthmansurfer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Also, not so much with Gold, but look at Bitcoin.
> Check out [www.weusecoins.com] to find out
> more. These viritual currencies like bitcoin, are
> slowly going to disrupt the centralized banking
> systems control. Looks like they might be to the
> monetary system what the internet was to freedom
> of information. The value we give to anything,
> gold or silver, is in large part just a faith
> based agreement (Intrinsic value is subjective. We
> also need to consider the damage to the earth the
> mining does). The dollar, Euro, etc. are
> essentially digital currencies, but can inflate to
> no end. Bitcoin, and some of the other currencies
> are not, limited supply but 8 decimal places to
> allow for limited supply. Bitcoin, to an extent,
> is reflecting the hyperinflation.
> [bitcoin.clarkmoody.com] Gold is not. If you
> think back to when gold was $250 an ounce and the
> amount of money in circulation then, and compare
> it to gold right now and the vastly increased
> money supply. It makes NO sense that gold is this
> low. It should be in the thousands as the demand
> is tremendous. It is clear the price is being
> manipulated, and on so many levels. But the
> electronic shorting is doing wonders, they need to
> reform that part, but empires don't give in that
> easily.
>
> Albert